{"id":52312,"date":"2025-09-23T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/?p=52312"},"modified":"2025-09-23T09:24:47","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T07:24:47","slug":"los-neo-malthusianos-estan-equivocados-nos-somos-demasiados-en-el-planeta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/fr\/firmas\/los-neo-malthusianos-estan-equivocados-nos-somos-demasiados-en-el-planeta\/","title":{"rendered":"Les n\u00e9o-malthusiens se trompent : nous ne sommes pas si nombreux sur la plan\u00e8te."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La pr\u00e9diction de l&#039;\u00e9conomiste Thomas Malthus, dans son essai de 1798, reposait sur une id\u00e9e simple mais puissante qui circulait dans les m\u00e9dias\u00a0: la population humaine cro\u00eet g\u00e9om\u00e9triquement, tandis que la production alimentaire cro\u00eet arithm\u00e9tiquement, ce qui conduirait in\u00e9vitablement \u00e0 des famines massives, \u00e0 la pauvret\u00e9 et \u00e0 la mort pour \u00ab\u00a0\u00e9quilibrer\u00a0\u00bb le surplus de population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9volution industrielle, les progr\u00e8s technologiques et le d\u00e9veloppement du commerce mondial ont consid\u00e9rablement am\u00e9lior\u00e9 la productivit\u00e9 agricole et redistribu\u00e9 les ressources, brisant ainsi le cycle de pauvret\u00e9 et de famine qu&#039;il d\u00e9crivait. C&#039;\u00e9tait l&#039;erreur classique de l&#039;\u00e9conomiste m\u00e9diocre qui fait des pr\u00e9dictions sans tenir compte de la capacit\u00e9 d&#039;innovation du g\u00e9nie humain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Malgr\u00e9 l&#039;erreur flagrante de Malthus, le nombre de n\u00e9o-malthusiens qui persistent \u00e0 affirmer que la population mondiale est insoutenable a connu une croissance surprenante ces quarante derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Ne pouvant plus invoquer une p\u00e9nurie alimentaire (alors que la production mondiale augmente chaque ann\u00e9e), ils s&#039;appuient d\u00e9sormais sur un concept, lui aussi sujet \u00e0 controverse\u00a0: le changement climatique d&#039;origine anthropique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9alit\u00e9, c&#039;est qu&#039;il n&#039;y a pas beaucoup d&#039;\u00eatres humains sur la plan\u00e8te.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Notre biomasse est minimale<\/strong>L&#039;esp\u00e8ce humaine ne repr\u00e9sente que 0,011 TP3T de la biomasse totale de la biosph\u00e8re (presque tous les types de bact\u00e9ries, champignons, protistes ou arch\u00e9es nous surpassent en biomasse de plusieurs dizaines, voire centaines de fois). Les mol\u00e9cules organiques se distinguent des mol\u00e9cules inorganiques par leur composition, essentiellement constitu\u00e9e de cha\u00eenes carbon\u00e9es. C&#039;est pourquoi la biomasse (la masse des \u00eatres vivants) est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement mesur\u00e9e en tonnes de carbone. Voici la biomasse des quelque 9 millions d&#039;esp\u00e8ces connues, mesur\u00e9e en gigatonnes de carbone (Gt C)\u00a0:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"780\" src=\"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-2-1024x780.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-52313\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-2-1024x780.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-2-700x533.png 700w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-2-300x229.png 300w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-2-768x585.png 768w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-2-16x12.png 16w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-2-600x457.png 600w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-2.png 1146w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Nos \u00e9missions de CO2 sont minimales.<\/strong>Seulement 31 % environ des \u00e9missions naturelles annuelles de CO2 de la plan\u00e8te sont d&#039;origine humaine (le reste provenant de la respiration des organismes, de la d\u00e9composition de la mati\u00e8re organique, du d\u00e9gazage des oc\u00e9ans, des \u00e9ruptions volcaniques, etc.). Par cons\u00e9quent, l&#039;activit\u00e9 humaine ne contribue qu&#039;\u00e0 hauteur d&#039;environ 31 % \u00e0 l&#039;augmentation annuelle d&#039;environ 2 parties par million du CO2 atmosph\u00e9rique observ\u00e9e ces 60 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Ainsi, notre contribution est de 0,0000061 % (0,06 partie par million) de cette augmentation annuelle.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"785\" src=\"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3-1024x785.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-52314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3-1024x785.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3-700x537.png 700w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3-768x589.png 768w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3-1536x1177.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3-16x12.png 16w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3-600x460.png 600w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-3.png 1559w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>La superficie occup\u00e9e par l&#039;urbanisation humaine est \u00e9galement minimale.<\/strong>Cela ne repr\u00e9sente que 1\u00a0561 TP3T de la superficie continentale totale. On pourrait objecter qu&#039;en incluant les zones consacr\u00e9es \u00e0 l&#039;agriculture et \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9levage, l&#039;occupation humaine atteint environ 321 TP3T du total. Cependant, d&#039;innombrables esp\u00e8ces coexistent sur les terres agricoles\u00a0; le chiffre exact pour repr\u00e9senter \u00ab\u00a0l&#039;occupation humaine\u00a0\u00bb est donc les 1\u00a0561 TP3T mentionn\u00e9s pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, soit la superficie occup\u00e9e par les villes, les habitations et toutes les routes\u00a0; ou 2\u00a0931 TP3T si l&#039;on exclut radicalement du calcul tous les d\u00e9serts, les champs de glace, les montagnes, les rivi\u00e8res, les lacs, les marais et les mangroves. Et dans les deux cas, on exclut la vaste superficie des oc\u00e9ans.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"882\" src=\"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5-1024x882.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-52321\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5-1024x882.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5-700x603.png 700w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5-300x258.png 300w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5-768x661.png 768w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5-1536x1323.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5-14x12.png 14w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5-600x517.png 600w, https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-5.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous ne sommes pas nombreux, mais les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s occidentales ont n\u00e9anmoins adh\u00e9r\u00e9 \u00e0 cette vision n\u00e9o-malthusienne et pessimiste, et le taux de natalit\u00e9 continue de baisser. Le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 mondial, hors Afrique subsaharienne, est d\u00e9j\u00e0 inf\u00e9rieur au seuil de remplacement de 2,1 enfants par femme. Dans de nombreux pays occidentaux, il est bien plus bas. En Espagne, le dernier chiffre, datant de 2023, est de 1,12 enfant par femme (enfants n\u00e9s hors d&#039;Espagne inclus).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Outre la valeur inestimable des enfants, si nous ne voulons pas dispara\u00eetre en tant qu&#039;esp\u00e8ce \u00e0 long terme, nous devons avoir plus d&#039;enfants. Et sans attendre le long terme, si nous ne voulons pas que de nombreux pays occidentaux disparaissent culturellement \u00e0 moyen terme, nous devons avoir plus d&#039;enfants.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La predicci\u00f3n del economista Thomas Malthus, en su ensayo de 1798, se basaba en una idea simple pero poderosa medi\u00e1ticamente: la poblaci\u00f3n humana crece de forma geom\u00e9trica, mientras que la producci\u00f3n de alimentos lo hace de manera aritm\u00e9tica, lo que inevitablemente llevar\u00eda a hambrunas masivas, pobreza y muerte para \u00abequilibrar\u00bb el exceso de gente. La [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2417,"featured_media":52320,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[1011],"class_list":["post-52312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-firmas","tag-natalidad"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Los neo-malthusianos est\u00e1n equivocados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mientras los nuevos malthusianos temen el exceso de gente, los datos muestran que el verdadero problema es que cada vez nacen menos.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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