{"id":52071,"date":"2025-09-12T06:32:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T04:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/?p=52071"},"modified":"2025-09-10T15:50:46","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T13:50:46","slug":"piu-aerei-vengono-riempiti-piu-culle-vengono-svuotate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/it\/firmas\/cuantos-mas-aviones-se-llenan-mas-cunas-se-vacian\/","title":{"rendered":"Pi\u00f9 aerei vengono riempiti, pi\u00f9 culle vengono svuotate."},"content":{"rendered":"

Il turismo internazionale presenta un'elevata correlazione inversa con i tassi di natalit\u00e0. La correlazione non implica una causalit\u00e0, ma un'ipotesi plausibile \u00e8 che la massificazione del turismo sia in gran parte dovuta al fatto che le persone hanno smesso di avere figli e hanno meno costi fissi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secondo l'Organizzazione Mondiale del Turismo, nel 2024 gli arrivi turistici internazionali raggiungeranno 1,465 miliardi, lo stesso livello del 2019 in numeri assoluti, con una crescita annuale composta di 4,5% tra il 1964 e il 2024, molto superiore alla crescita del PIL mondiale in dollari costanti e pro capite, che dal 1964 \u00e8 cresciuto a un tasso annuale composto di circa 2,0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In percentuale sulla popolazione, i turisti che viaggiano a livello internazionale rappresentavano 3,20 % della popolazione globale nel 1964, mentre nel 2024 rappresenteranno 17,95 % (ancora leggermente al di sotto del 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pertanto, n\u00e9 la crescita della ricchezza pro capite n\u00e9 quella della popolazione possono spiegare l'enorme crescita del turismo negli ultimi 60 anni. Devono esserci altri fattori. La mia ipotesi \u00e8 che uno dei pi\u00f9 importanti, se non il pi\u00f9 importante, sia il calo della natalit\u00e0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secondo la Banca Mondiale, il tasso di fertilit\u00e0 mondiale nel 1964 era di 5,13 figli per donna. Da allora \u00e8 crollato a 2,2 figli per donna nel 2023, ed \u00e8 inferiore a 2 figli per donna se si esclude l'Africa subsahariana, dove le donne hanno ancora, grazie a Dio, 4,4 figli in media. In Spagna il tasso \u00e8 di 1,12 figli per donna, in Italia di 1,18, negli Stati Uniti di 1,62, in Giappone di 1,20 e in Corea del Sud di 0,72.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dobbiamo fare qualcosa per invertire la tendenza alla diminuzione del tasso di natalit\u00e0, soprattutto nel mondo sviluppato. Altrimenti, settori come il turismo continueranno a crescere, ma sempre pi\u00f9 in \"modalit\u00e0 Imserso\", per poi declinare e scomparire rapidamente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Preparato da Jos\u00e9 Gefaell<\/figcaption><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El turismo internacional mantiene una alta correlaci\u00f3n inversa con las tasas de natalidad. Correlaci\u00f3n no implica causalidad, pero una hip\u00f3tesis plausible es que la masificaci\u00f3n del turismo se debe en gran medida a que las personas han dejado de tener hijos y tienen menos gastos fijos. Seg\u00fan la Organizaci\u00f3n Mundial del Turismo, en 2024 las […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2417,"featured_media":52076,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[1011],"class_list":["post-52071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-firmas","tag-natalidad"],"yoast_head":"\nCuantos m\u00e1s aviones se llenan, m\u00e1s cunas se vac\u00edan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Desde 1964, el turismo internacional no ha parado de crecer mientras la natalidad mundial se reduce a la mitad.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.omnesmag.com\/it\/firme\/piu-aerei-vengono-riempiti-piu-culle-vengono-svuotate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta 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